Pat Spillane: Mayo has firepower to see off Galway and Dublin should pip Derry

Allianz Football League

Division 1 final

Galway v Mayo, Croke Park, 4.0, Live on TG4

I will be very disappointed if we don’t see two quality games today. Obviously, the Division 1 final is the big one.

Galway last won the League in 1981 – so they are going to be motivated. Mayo have won two League titles in the last 50 years – so, despite being out in the Championship next Sunday, they will be gung-ho too.

Something has to give. Mayo are the top scorers in Division One, whereas Galway have the best defensive record.

I have been impressed by the Tribesmen, who have banished any hangover from last year’s All-Ireland final defeat.

They have unearthed new talent with John McGrath, Seán Fitzgerald, Cian Hernon, Daniel O’Flaherty and John Maher all making an impact, which means they now have a stronger bench.

Defensively they are superbly well organised, conceding just over 11 points per game. But what has really impressed me is their game management.

They were down to 14 men against Monaghan for the entire second half, but still won.

The way they ‘kept’ ball in the closing minutes against Kerry last Sunday was top-drawer stuff.

Mayo have been even more impressive. Kevin McStay has also discovered new talent like David McBrien and Sam Callinan who are prototype Croke Park players, being blessed with athleticism and pace.

They have added variety to their play and, though they still utilise the running game, they have a kicking game now, with Aidan O’Shea operating effectively in the full-forward line.

And even bigger plus is the return of Tommy Conroy and the improved form of Jordan Flynn.

I’m tipping Mayo because I have a nagging doubt about Galway’s scoring threat.

They were the lowest scorers in Division 1 and their starting forwards scored 0-3 from play against Kerry. Mayo are further advanced in terms of their preparations and should edge it.

Verdict: Mayo

Division 2 final

Dublin v Derry, Croke Park, 1.45, Live on TG4

This pair provided us with a classic in round five, with Derry getting over the line with a point to spare at Celtic Park.

Derry have been the country’s outstanding team this spring. They’re the only unbeaten team in the competition and they had the best defensive record in all divisions.

Switching Brendan Rogers to midfield has given them extra impetus – and Eoin McEvoy had been impressive as Rogers’ replacement at full-back.

I was very taken by their second-half performance against Dublin, when they threw off the shackles.

They need a similarly bold approach today – if they decide to sit back in the vast expanse of Croke Park, the Dubs will pick them off.

Overall, I’m not sure about Dublin. Bringing back Stephen Cluxton doesn’t send out positive vibes.

They achieved promotion without pulling up any trees, scarcely moving out of third gear.

Though they are the highest scorers in the division they failed to score a goal against Derry, Clare, Louth and Cork.

With the exception of Daire Newcombe and David O’Hanlon, they discovered little in the way of new talent.

The irony is that goalkeeper O’Hanlon will probably lose his place to Cluxton. Is that progress?

They have a lot of players with a lot of football miles in their legs.

They look for all the world like a team going for one last hurrah.

I give them a hesitant vote, with the Croke Park factor swinging it.

Verdict: Dublin