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Let it roll Top statistician says calls for investigation into Lotto system are unnecessary

'But given that the Lottery is drawn twice a week... it's not surprising that we get a sequence of rollovers like this'

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The head of statistics at the School of Mathematical Sciences at University College Cork (UCC) has said calls for an investigation into the Lotto system are unnecessary. 

Although the draw has rolled over 47 times since the start of June, Dr Michael Cronin told Newstalk Breakfast this morning that the number of rollovers makes no difference to the odds of winning.

"The odds of an event of 1,500 to one is pretty small, it's a relatively rare event.

"But given that the Lottery is drawn twice a week... it's not surprising that we get a sequence of rollovers like this.

"And it's important to remember that the lottery machine itself doesn't have a memory.

"And so even though its rolled over 47 times, it doesn't make any difference to tonight's draw - for example.

"So your odds of winning on a single ticket tonight are still 10.7 million to one.

"They haven't increased or they haven't decreased".

Earlier this month, one Fine Gael TD said the prospect of winning the Irish lottery is so remote that punters must be thinking Shergar would have a better chance at winning Squid Game.

Deputy Bernard Durkan had called for an audit and investigation as he pointed out that it has been almost six months since the National Lottery draw was won.

“This didn’t happen in Ronan Collins’ day,” he said. “The jackpot has been stuck on €19m since September. What’s going on?"

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Deputy Durkan was speaking after the biweekly lotto draw was rolled over on 46 separate occasions since it was last won on June 6.

“We need a full investigation and audit into the draw,” he added.

However, Dr Cronin said, “if you rolled a dice four times, the odds of getting a six four times are about 1,300 to one - which is the same realm as the sequence we're seeing here.

"Or if you picked a person at random, the chance that they were born on February 29th is about 1,400 to one - again the same realm.

"These events in themselves are a little unusual, but given the amount of people we have - given the number of times you can potentially role a dice - it's a nice surprising to see these sequences of these events."

And he says calls for an investigation into the Lotto system are unnecessary.

"It's completely random, there's no evidence of anything untoward happening,” he added.

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