Expert take | 

Kinahan Cartel: Expert expects organised gangs to fill void left by under-siege Kinahans

But chief analyst Sheelagh Brady said it 'may be naive to assume the KCG face imminent demise'

Eamon Dillon

An Irish security expert predicts organised crime gangs are set to step into the shoes of the under-siege Kinahan Cartel.

But chief analyst with SAR Consultancy Sheelagh Brady said it “may be naive to assume the KCG face imminent demise, given they have actively displayed high levels of innovation, adaption, and resilience in the past.”

The sheer size of the criminal cartel means they have likely already put in place ways to get around being placed on the US sanctions list.

While any legal challenge against the US Office of Foreign Assets Control is unlikely to succeed, it might be the only option for those among the 600 people on the US no-fly list.

“Given the expansion of the US travel ban to a further 600 individuals associated with the KCG, some of these may also reach for the protection of the law as a means of disassociating with the group.”

Writing in the paper, published on the SAR Consulting website, Ms Brady adds that Kinahan Cartel leadership would likely have problems even finding a law firm to take on their case.

Other gangs will be watching closely both in terms of taking advantage of the situation and finding ways to avoid the same fate.

As pointed out by other researchers “efforts to intercept trafficking can lead to better trafficking” and could see the organised crime gangs “evolve” as a result.

“While the KCG are dominating the headlines and public law enforcement efforts at the moment, it is crucial that the movements of other similar groups within Ireland, the EU, or with international ties do not fall to the wayside.”

“Thus, it is important that the evolution of OCGs in response to recent actions is closely monitored to ensure they don’t benefit at the expense of the KCGs prioritisation.”

Ms Brady added that while the Kinahan Crime Gang leadership may end up being arrested "their associates or rivals are likely to be waiting in the wings to step up, now also prepared to play their hand.”

While the move by the Gardaí in conjunction with international agencies will have hot the gang “some within the KCG and other OCGs are likely to be invigorated and emboldened by what they see as an opportunity.”

“Thus, while the net may be closing in on those at the apex of the KCG, the final nail in the coffin has not been hammered home, yet.”

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